JPMorgan Econ FI-US Fixed Income Overview Policy – and fundamentals – in a go...-107709809

PhoebeWhiteAC(1-212)834-3092HollyCunningham(1-212)834-5683NorthAmericaFixedIncomeJPMORGANphoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.comholly.cunningham@jpmorgan.comStrategyJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC19April2024LiamLWash(1-212)834-5230liam.wash@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCUSFixedIncomeOverviewPolicy–andfundamentals–inagoodplace•TreasuryyieldscontinuedhigherandspreadswidenedfollowingaweekofhawkishFedspeakandstrongeconomicdata.Fedofficialsemphasizedthatitmaybeappropriatetokeeppolicyratesunchangedforlonger•Economics:Nominalretailsalesrose0.7%inMarch,whiletheimportantcontrolgroupjumped1.1%.Weseeupsideriskstoour2.25%realGDP1Q24forecast.Lookingaheadtonextweek,weexpectcorePCErose0.27%inMarch(2.7%oya)•Treasuries:Weseemorelimitedroomforyieldstorisefromcurrentlevels:thebarishighforfurtherrepricinghigherinFedexpectations,themagnitudeanddurationoftherecentsell-offmatchesotherlargemovesoverthelastdecade,valuationsarehistoricallyattractive,andinvestorpositioningisneutral.However,thedatacalendarisrelativelylightoverthenexttwoweeksandweprefertobepatient,particularlyinanegative-carryenvironment:stayneutralduration•InterestRateDerivatives:MaintainswapspreadwidenersatthefrontendofthecurveamidexpectationsforcontinuednegativeT-billissuance.Addswapspreadwidenersinthebellyamidrobustbankdemand.Remainneutralonlong-endswap...