AccessibleversionGlobalMemoryTech02February2024Weeklytheme:strongJanexports,FebEquityspotrally,HBMEUV,Samsungre-ratingGlobalTechnologyIndustryOverviewSimonWoo,CFA>>Korea’ssemisexportsup56%YoYinJanResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(Seoul)Korea’ssemisexportgrowthrateacceleratedfrom+13%/+22%YoYinNov/Decto+82237070554+56%inJan(absoluteamountUS$9.4bn).ThekeycontributorslikelywereASPhikesimon.woo@bofa.com(10%+MoMor30%+YoY)andmiximprovement–shippingmoreexpensiveHBM3andDDR5vscommodityDDR4.Wealsoobservemorevalue-addedNANDproductexportsDaiShen>>insteadofjustfabricatedwafers(orrawchips).Thisisfarhigherthan2020-21growthResearchAnalystrates(10-30%)followingthe2019downturn.SinceFebexportswillbesimilartoJan’sMerrillLynch(HongKong)levelorslightlylower(lessworkingdays)atUS$9bn+/-(vsaUS$6.0bnyearago),wedai.shen@bofa.comexpectthe50%+growthratetobesustainable.OnceweinputJanexportsdataintoourmemoryindicator,theexportindexshows121orupcycle,exceedingthemid-cycle100.VivekAryaThetroughwasestablishedinJan-Apr2023at72-74(20-yearlow;seeExhibit13).ResearchAnalystBofASDRAMandNANDspotstrengthlikelytocontinuevivek.arya@bofa.comMemoryspotpricefirmlyrosethisweekledby512GbNAND(+7%WoW)and16GbMikioHirakawa>>DDR5(+2%).Thisisconsistentwiththememoryupcycle–OEMs’channelinventoryResearchAnalystrestockingaheadofLunarNewYearholidaysorconcernsaboutchippr...
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