Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary February 22-106661207

MFebruary22,202411:38PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781February22StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703AIoptimismliftsSPXtorecordhigh;USTstwistflatten,curves+1212761-2779endatsessionlows;Fed'sJeffersoncautionsonconsumerMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877spending;Europeanratestwistflatten,ECBAccountsshowcuts+8136836-8428still"premature";KRWgains,BoKonhold;MXNweakenspost-DominicJKrummenacher+8522239-7983CPI;DXYat103.94(-0.1%);US10yat4.321%(+0.2bp).Strategist•OptimismaroundartificialintelligenceemanatesinasurgeinglobalDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comequities;theS&P500(+2.15%)vaultstoanewrecordhighandpostsitslargestsingle-sessiongainsinceJanuary2023.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•USTreasuriestwistflattenasinitialjoblessclaimshoverjustaboveEliPCarterpost-pandemiclows;the5s30s(12.7bp)curveendsatsession,aswellasyear-to-datelows.StrategistEli.Carter@morganstanley.com•FedViceChairJeffersonexpectsslowergrowthinspendingandoutputin2024butcautionscontinuedstrengthinspendingisanLenoyDujon"importantupsiderisk"tohisforecast.US/CanadaEconomist•Europeanratestwistflatten,AccountsfromtheJanuaryECBLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.commeetingshowabroadconsensussaiditwas"premature"todiscussratecuts,membersstillbelievethedisinflationaryprocessis...