Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary April 15-107610259 (1)

MApril15,202410:54PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781April15StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703Renewedescalationrisksbear-steepenTsycurve;USDgainsas+1212761-0857equitiespivotlower;Europeanratesbear-steepen;AUD/NZDMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877risesonRBNZneutralOCRestimate;ECB'sSimkustalkspaceof+8136836-8428cuts;BRLlagspeersonlowerspendingtarget;DXYat106.21DominicJKrummenacher+8523963-0303(+0.2%);US10yat4.601%(+8.0bp).Strategist•USTsopencheaperafterthegeopoliticaleventsthisweekend,lossesDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comdeepenonrobustUSretailsales.Thefront-endbeginstooutperformandthecurvebear-steepensonrisksoffurtherMorganStanley&Co.LLCescalation.EliPCarter•LatesessionUSdollarstrengthoccursalongsideadeteriorationinrisksentiment,asUSequitiesconfrontgeopoliticalrisks,earningsStrategistvolatility,andseasonalheadwindsaroundtaxpayments.Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com•Europeandurationbear-steepens,peripheralspreadswidenasrisk-SarahAWolfeoffsentimentunfolds.Economist•AUD/NZD(+0.2%)risesasNewZealandgovernmentbondsbull-Sarah.Wolfe@morganstanley.comsteepenaftertheRBNZoutlinesneutralOfficialCashRateof3.9%.MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+•ECBGoverningCouncilMemberSimkusbelieves“thereisamorethan50%probabilitytha...