Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary February 13-106514433

MFebruary14,202412:11AMGMTUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLC+1212761-6076+44207425-9781February13MartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-4703OERdrivesabove-expectationsUSJanuaryCPI;USTsbear-Strategist+1212761-2779flatten,market-impliedcutsrecede;DXYUSDIndexhitsanewMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+44207425-1877localhigh;CHFlossescomeamidstSwisscoreCPIdeflation;+8136836-8428EGBssell-off;Riksbank'sJanssontalkspausesincuttingcycle;MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+DXYat104.85(+0.7%);US10yat4.314%(+13.5bp).DominicJKrummenacher•USCoreCPIcomesinwellaboveexpectations,withbroad-basedstrengthinalmostallcoreservicescategories;themaindriverwasaStrategistre-accelerationinOERthatcontributes19bptocore.Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com•USTsselloffaggressivelyandbear-flattenafterthereboundinMorganStanley&Co.LLCinflation.MarketsreducetheamountofimpliedFedratecutsto86bpthisyear,withlessthan25bpnowpricedinbytheJuneEliPCartermeeting.Strategist•USDexhibitsbroad-basedstrengthagainstitsG10peersalongsideEli.Carter@morganstanley.comtherelentlessriseinUSTyields;theDXYUSDIndexrises0.7%to104.85,toafreshlocalhigh.LenoyDujon•PronouncedCHF(-1.3%)lossesagainstUSDcomedespiteitssafeUS/CanadaEconomisthavenstatusafterSwitzerlandcoreCPIdeflationduringJanuary.Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com•Europeancurvesflattenwithfront-endunderperfor...