Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary February 15-106553187

MFebruary15,202411:25PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCUpdateGlobalMacroCommentaryGlobalMartinWTobias,CFA+1212761-6076+44207425-9781February15StrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-4703USTscomeoffpost-retailsaleshighs;Japanenterstechnical+1212761-2779recession,JGBsrally;GBPresilienceisdespiteUKtechnicalMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-1877recession;ACGBsrallyafterweakAustralianjobsdata;10yBTP-+8136836-8428Bundspreadsub-150bp;ECB'sLagardecautionsoncuts;DXYatDominicJKrummenacher104.28(-0.4%);US10yat4.230%(-2.5bp).Strategist•SoftnessinJanuaryUSretailsalestakesUSTreasuriestosessionDominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.comhighs,buttherallygraduallyretraces,asthecurvebull-flattens.MorganStanley&Co.LLC•JapanGDPcontractsforthesecondconsecutivequarter,markstechnicalrecession.OureconomistscitehigherriskofaNIRPexitEliPCarternowinApril;abroadrallyinJGBsisledbythebelly.Strategist•GBPisresilientafterUKGDPalsocontractsforthesecondEli.Carter@morganstanley.comconsecutivequarter,atechnicalrecession.OureconomistsviewtheeconomyasfragileandtheoutlookheavilydependentonBoErateLenoyDujoncuts.US/CanadaEconomist•ACGBsstageadouble-digitrallyacrossthecurveafterAustraliaonlyLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comadds0.5kjobsinJanuary(C:25.0k;P:-62.7k)andtheunemploymentraterisesto4.1%,thehighestsinceMay2022.MorganStanley&Co.Internatio...