JPMorgan Econ FI-Global Data Watch Opportunistic disinflation, redux-108018567

JPMORGANGlobalEconomicResearch03May2024GlobalDataWatch•Powell’shikeaversion,USlabormarketcoolingboostglobalriskappetiteEconomicandPolicyResearch•DespiteAprilPMIdip,globalindustryonarecoverytrack•WesternEuropetojoinEMincautiouseasingBruceKasman•Nextweek:ServicesPMIs;Riksbank,COPOMease25bp;Banxicoholds(1-212)834-5515Opportunisticdisinflation,redux?bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAGlobalgrowthandinflationfarexceededourexpectationslastquarterandshookbothmarketandcentralbankconfidencethatasignificantinterestratedeclineisJosephLuptonintheoffing.GlobalGDPistrackinga3.3%argainin1Q24,afull%-pointaboveitspotentialpaceandourforecastatthestartoftheyear.AlthoughUSgrowth(1-212)834-5735downshifted,itremainedapowerfuldemandenginegeneratingrapidimportandjoseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comjobgains.WithWesternEuroperisingfromitsslumberandstrongincreasespostedJPMorganChaseBankNAacrossAsia,1Q24globalGDPgrowthoutsidetheUSandChinaroseata2.6%ar,itsfastestgainineightquarters.CoreCPIinflation,meanwhile,acceleratedtoaNoraSzentivanyi3.5%arlastquarter(ex.ChinaandTürkiye).Incontrasttothegrowthsurprises,thisaccelerationwasconcentratedintheUSandEuroarea,whichpostedannualized(44-20)7134-7544gainsof4.4%and3.2%,respectively,lastquarter.nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcTheseoutcomesreinforceourviewthatcentralbanks...