JPMorgan Econ FI-Commodity Market Positioning Flows Global commodity open i...-107902385

JPMORGANGlobalCommoditiesResearch29April2024CommodityMarketPositioning&FlowsGlobalcommodityopeninterestvalueedgesoffthehighsastradersclosedagsbets•TheestimatedvalueofopeninterestacrossglobalcommoditymarketsGlobalCommoditiesResearchcontinuedtoedgeofftherecenthighsat$1.41trillion,downby-0.6%TraceyAllenACWOWwithgainsacrosstheenergycomplexbufferingcontractflowdrivendeclinesacrosstheagriculturalcomplex(asof26Apr,Table1,Thestimadvluofcyrkpnjgbx,w-0.6%WO~$142A(44-20)7134-6732Figure2).Investorshortcoveringacrosstheagriculturalmarketsnamelytracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcThestimadvluofgbcyrkpnwGregoryC.Shearerthesoybeancomplex,andprofittakingacrossthesoftsledbycocoamarketspromptedcontractbasedoutflows(calculatedacrossalltrader(44-20)7134-8161types)forthefirsttimeineightweeks,totalingto-$8.3billionWOW,withgregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.cominflowstoEUA’sandpreciousmetalsprovidingsomeoffset(Figure1).204YTDglobacmditesfwry-5.3%WO~$1nJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcOurstrategistsforecastcontinuedpricegainsacrossthecommoditycomplex,withscopeforanadditional10%+rallyontopofthe8%increaseNatashaKanevasincetheFebruarylows.USHenryHubNaturalGasishighlightedasthetopbuyrecommendation,copperfollowsasthesecondrecommendedbuy,(1-212)834-3175withanexpectedpeakpricetargetof$11,500/mt.Goldremainsastrongnatasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.comcon...