Global Fund Manager Survey-Pretty Fully Bully

AccessibleversionGlobalFundManagerSurveyPrettyFullyBullyBofAAprilGlobalFundManagerSurvey16April2024BottomLine:mostbullishFMSsinceJan’22;biggestjumpinglobalgrowthoptimismInvestmentStrategysinceMay’20,recordjumpinallocationtocommodities,FMScashlevelsdropto4.2%Globalfrom4.4%;bullsentimentnotquiteat“close-your-eyes-and-sell”levels(i.e.cash<4%)butriskassetstacticallymuchmorevulnerabletobadnewsthangood.MichaelHartnettInvestmentStrategistOnMacro:firsttimesinceDec’21investorssayglobalgrowth(net11%)toaccelerate,BofAS78%sayglobalrecessionunlikely,“nolanding”expectationssurgeto36%(was7%in+16468551508January),“softlanding”fallsto54%,hardlandingat7%(was30%inOct’23–Chart1).michael.hartnett@bofa.comElyasGalou>>OnRates:76%expect2ormoreFedcutsin’24vs8%sayingnocuts;butinvestorsInvestmentStrategistlessoptimisticoninflation&bonds(38%expectlowerbondyieldsvs62%inDec’23).BofASE(France)+33187700087OnRisks&Crowds:biggesttailrisks=inflation(41%)&geopolitics(24%);catalystselyas.galou@bofa.comtodrivedefensiverisk-off:33%say4.5%U-rate,30%say10-yearUSTyield>4.5%,AnyaShelekhin29%sayoil>$100/bl;most“crowdedtrades”longMag7(52%)&shortChina(16%).InvestmentStrategistBofASOnAA,Regions&Sectors:largestdropinbondallocationsinceJul’03,biggest3-+16468553753monthdropincashsinceDec'20,recordjumpincommodityallocation,goldmostanya.shelekh...