Morgan Stanley-Thematics Venture Vision IPOs #2 – What Next-106373102

MFebruary6,202402:00PMGMTFoundationThematicsEuropeMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-0840+44207425-9902VentureVision:IPOs#2–WhatEdwardStanleyNext?EquityStrategistWepresent3theoreticalscenariosforIPOactivity:(1)ifourEdward.Stanley@morganstanley.comstrategists'viewontheS&P500materialises;(2)ifJanuaryS&P500returnsforetellwhathappensnext;and(3)ifthiscycleMatiasOvrumrestartslikethelastfivedid.Frommosttoleastbullish,thescenariosrank3then2then1.USelectionyearsarepositiveinEquityStrategistanyscenario.Matias.Ovrum@morganstanley.com•SeehereforourfirstinthisIPOseries:TheStateofMarketsOurVentureVisionweeklieslookat(1)early-stagecross-themefundingpatterns;(2)Exhibit1:StateoftheIPOmarkets–howourfindingsdifferfromtheconsensusrelativevaluationsbetweenthemes;(3)publicviewversusprivatevaluations;(4)theresultingConsensusview:anomalieswithincertainthemes.Pleaseletusknowifyouwouldlikeourexceldatabaseof>45,000VCdealscategorisedbytheme,country,valueanddate.Wealsosendthisfileasaweeklydistributionifyouwouldliketoreceiveitregularly.Seehereforourglobalmarketsynopsis.SeehereforourlongeranalysisonthestateoftheVCmarket,particularlyasitrelatestonon-USVentureandinnovationacceleration.MacroheadwindsandtepidCEOconfidencecouldpushanIPOmarketre-startinto2H24/1H25.OurTakeForInvestors:OurTakeForCorporates:'22and'23weretheworstyearsfor...