Morgan Stanley-Thematics Venture Vision A Rare Vintage-107641572

MApril16,202401:00PMGMTFoundationThematicsEuropeMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207425-0840+44207425-9902VentureVision:ARareVintageEdwardStanley2025/26haveoutsizedoddsofbeingtop3vintageyearsforEquityStrategistgrowthequityasfarbackasourrecordsgo.Edward.Stanley@morganstanley.comPleasetake2minutestovoteintheongoingIIsurvey.MatiasOvrumEquityStrategistMatias.Ovrum@morganstanley.comThisviewissimple,anextensionofthispriorworkandpredicatedonthefollowing:OurVentureVisionweeklieslookat(1)early-stagecross-themefundingpatterns;(2)•Ratesstarttofallin3Q:WhileourUSEconomist,EllenZentner,haspushedrelativevaluationsbetweenthemes;(3)publicthefirstratecutexpectationtoJuly(fromJune)andtakesoutonecutfromversusprivatevaluations;(4)theresultingthisyear,shestillexpectsthreecutsof-25bpsthisyearandfourmoreinanomalieswithincertainthemes.Pleaseletus2025withtheFFtargetrangeendingtheyearat4.5-4.75%andnextyearatknowifyouwouldlikeourexceldatabaseof3.5-3.75%.>45,000VCdealscategorisedbytheme,country,valueanddate.Wealsosendthisfileas•Bankruptciespeakin2025:TherehastypicallybeenadelayfromfirstFedaweeklydistributionifyouwouldliketoreceiveratecuttopeakbankruptcyintheUS.Thecontrarianviewhereisthesheeritregularly.Seehereforourglobalmarketscaleofdrypowderandprivatedebtfacilitieswhichcouldseebankruptciessynopsis.Seehereforourlongeranalysisonth...