JPMORGANGlobalCommoditiesResearch31January2024OilDemandTrackerGlobalCommoditiesResearchUnseasonablywarmweathercontinuestonegativelyPrateekKediaACimpactJanuaryoildemand(1-646)3261124•Ourhigh-frequencydemandindicatorsaretrackinga1.6month-over-monthprateek.kedia@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCdeclineinglobaloildemandinJanuary(Figure1).Whilethisreadingcomparesfavorablytothepre-COVIDfive-yearaverageMoMdropof2.3NatashaKanevaACmbdforJanuary,onanabsoluteleveldemandforthemonthislikelytoend400kbdbelowourexpectations.Onanannualizedbasisthisequatestoa30kbdhit(1-212)834-3175toour1.5mbdglobaloildemandgrowth.Thedeviationfromourestimateswasnatasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.comlikelycausedbylowerheatingoilusageduetoanunseasonablywarmJanuary.JPMorganChaseBankNA•Regionally,theUSandJapanreportedtheiroilconsumptionstatistics.ColeWolfAC•OurEuropedemandtrackernowseesdemandundershootingour13.5mbd(1-212)622-5762estimateforJanuaryby100kbd,whileearlyinthemonthitwastrackinghighercole.wolf@jpmchase.combyasmuchas300kbd.ThisislikelyduetowarmerthanexpectedweatherandJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLClowerflightactivityaffectedbystrikesacrosstheregion(Figure18).•USPSMstatisticsforNovemberreporteda496kbdYoYgainindemandledbyhigherLPGand“otherproducts”consumption.Intermsofthefuelmix,mostofthegainsindemandwereintheliquids,whilepetroleum-basedproductsreporte...
发表评论取消回复