Morgan Stanley-China Equity Strategy A-Share Sentiment Dropped Further wit...-107530262

MApril11,202409:00PMGMTUpdateChinaEquityStrategyAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522848-6853+8522848-7293A-ShareSentimentDroppedLauraWangFurtherwithLowerVolumeEquityStrategistSentimentfellonlowertradingvolume.StrongermacrodataLaura.Wang@morganstanley.commightnotbesustained,indicatinglesslikelihoodofnear-termfiscaleasing.Wewillmonitor1Q24resultsandLaborDayRaymondKLiuholidayspendingtogaugeifanearningsrevisionbottomiscoming.EquityStrategistRaymond.K.Liu@morganstanley.comA-shareinvestorsentimentdeclinedoverpast2weeks:WeightedandsimpleMSASIsdecreasedby7pptsand8ppts,to45%and39%,sincethelastupdate,Exhibit1:MSA-shareSentimentIndicatorrespectively.Averagedailyturnover(ADT)forChiNext,A-shares,equityfutures,and(MSASI):45%(weighted),-7pptsvs.March27NorthboundduringMarch28-April10decreasedby18%,11%,10%,and6%respectively,vs.thepriorcycle.RSI30-dayforCSI300declinedby2.0pptsduring100%MSASI(Simple)=6000thesameperiod.Meanwhile,consensusearningsestimaterevisionbreadthhas90%MSASI(Weighted)continuedtoseeacceleratingdownwardmomentumrecently.80%MSASI(Simple)Current550070%MSASI(Weighted)Current75%NorthboundnetoutflowstotaledUS$1.1bnduringMarch28-April10,recording60%CSI300(RHS)thethirdstraightweekofnetoutflowssincelateMarch:NorthboundYTDnet50%5000inflowsnowsitatUS$8.2bn.Duringthesamecycle,SouthboundrecordedUS40%$2.9bnnetinflows,...