Morgan Stanley-China Equity Strategy A-Share Sentiment Rose Further Ahead ...-106776627

MFebruary29,202409:00PMGMTUpdateChinaEquityStrategyAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522848-6853+656834-8172A-ShareSentimentRoseLauraWangFurtherAheadofNPCEquityStrategistFundinflowsandrecentpositiveindexrecoverylikelythekeyLaura.Wang@morganstanley.comdriversbehindthesentimentpickup.Monitorpolicystance,privatesectorsupport,earlysignsofreflation,propertymarketMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.+stabilization,etc.,formoresustainablemarketrecovery.JonathanFGarnerA-sharesentimentimprovedvisiblyvs.thepriorweek:WeightedandsimpleMSASIsroseby16pptand13pptto70%and67%,respectively.DailyturnoverforEquityStrategistChiNext,A-sharesandequityfuturesincreasedby43%,38%and21%,respectively,Jonathan.Garner@morganstanley.comhigherthanonFebruary21,thepreviouscyclecut-offday.RSI30-dayforCSI300wentdownby2.6pptduringthesameperiod.ConsensusearningsestimaterevisionsExhibit1:MSA-shareSentimentIndicatorcontinueditsdownwardtrend.(MSASI):70%(weighted),16pptupv.s.February21NorthboundnetinflowstotaledUS$2.2bnduringFebruary22-28,andSouthboundsawweeklynetinflowsofUS$2.0bn:NorthboundMTDnetinflows100%MSASI(Simple)=6000totaledUS$6.1bnandYTDnetinflowstotaledUS$4.2bn.SouthboundMTDnet90%MSASI(Weighted)inflowsstoodatUS$3.0bnandYTDnetinflowsclosetoUS$5.8bn.Theheavy80%MSASI(Simple)Current75%5500outflowpressureislargelydone,butmoretimeisneededbeforeinfl...