Morgan Stanley-China IT Services and Software 2024 outlook A chilly year ...-106064174

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MJanuary22,202412:00AMGMTIdeaChinaITServicesandSoftwareAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522239-1911+8522239-15722024outlook:AchillyyearforYangLiu+8523963-4660enterpriseITspending+8523963-1860EquityAnalystAgainstthebackdropofongoing3Dissues(debt,deflation,Yang.Liu@morganstanley.comdemographics),ourindustryviewisstillCautious.Weseetwothemestoshowrelativestandouts:1)overseaspioneers,and2)LydiaLinsustainablemarketsharegainers.WethinktheexpectationsgapintheAIvaluechainwillofferopportunities.EquityAnalystLydia.Lin@morganstanley.comWithmacrodevelopmentspointingmorenegativelythanwhenwepublishedourindustrydowngrade(lacklustermonthlydataandalackofreflationarypolicy),wePamelaHuangreiterateourCautiousindustryviewandcontinuetobelievethe3DissuesinChinawillactasamajorhurdletoenterpriseITspending,whichislatecycleinnature.ResearchAssociatePainfuldigestionisstillbeingprocessedgivenconsensusforecastsandvaluationPamela.Huang@morganstanley.comhaveyettoreflectfundamentals.Weseedownsideearningsriskinthe4Q23earningsseasonandhighlightthat1Q24willfaceaveryhighbase,particularlyintheTomTangcybersecuritygroup.Inthistoughmarketenvironment,weidentifytwothemestofindrelativestandouts.ResearchAssociateTom.Tang@morganstanley.com1.Goingoverseas.Overall,Chineseplayersarecurrentlynotcompetitiveintheglobalmarket.WithmoreChineseenterprisecusto...

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