Morgan Stanley Fixed-US Economics Global Macro Strategy FOMC Preview Not Much...-107021066

MMarch13,202408:42PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCIdeaUSEconomics&GlobalMacroStrategyNorthEllenZentner+1212296-4882America+1212761-1445ChiefUSEconomist+1212761-2647FOMCPreview:NotMuchHasEllen.Zentner@morganstanley.com+1212761-4630Changed+1212761-5287GuneetDhingra,CFA+1212761-1837WeexpectchangestotheSEPtopaintapictureofoptimism+1212761-8573aroundsupply-drivengrowth.Themediandotremainsat3.Strategist+1212761-0857InflationandbalancesheetinfocusfortheQ&A.FedremainsGuneet.Dhingra@morganstanley.compatient.FirstcutJune.Ourstrategistsstayneutralduration.+8136836-5466JayBacowKeyexpectations+1212761-6051Strategist+1212761-6076•TheFOMCremainsonholdat5.375%.WeexpectlittlechangetotheJay.Bacow@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779FOMCstatementandtheprojections,withthemediandotremaining+1212761-0407atthreecuts.Keyrisk:itwouldtakejusttwoparticipantstochangeSamDCoffinfromthreecutstotwoforthemediandottomovetoatotaloftwocutsin2024,underscoringthattherisktiltstowardfewerratherthanEconomistgreater.ChairPowellisunlikelyinthe"twocamp"andwethinkwillSam.Coffin@morganstanley.compushtokeepthemedianatthree.AndrewMWatrous•InflationprogressandthebalancesheetwilldominatetheQ&A.ChairPowellwillpointtoanexpectationofratecuts"atsomepoint".StrategistThoughweexpectnochangetobalancesheetguidanceintheAndrew.Watrous@morganstanley.comstatement,Powellislikelytosh...