Morgan Stanley-China Equity Strategy A-Share Sentiment Dropped Ahead of Ma...-107821586

MApril25,202409:39PMGMTUpdateChinaEquityStrategyAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522848-6853A-ShareSentimentDroppedLauraWangAheadofMayGoldenWeekEquityStrategistSentimentdroppedamongongoingmacroconcernsandLaura.Wang@morganstanley.comgeopoliticaluncertaintyaswellasupcomingextendedholidays.WewillmonitorMayGoldenWeekdataandearningsrevisionExhibit1:MSA-shareSentimentIndicatortrend.Recommendfocusingonsinglestockideasandthematic(MSASI):44%(weighted),down6pptvs.Aprilinvestment.17A-shareinvestorsentimentdroppedvs.priorweek:WeightedandsimpleMSASIs100%MSASI(Simple)=6000decreasedby6pptand12pptto44%and34%,respectively.Averagedailyturnover90%MSASI(Weighted)(ADT)forChiNext,A-shares,equityfuturesandNorthboundduringApril18-2480%MSASI(Simple)Current5500decreasedby3%,6%,14%and8%,respectively,vs.thepriorcycle.RSI30-dayfor70%MSASI(Weighted)Current75%CSI300decreasedby5.6pptduringthesameperiod.Meanwhile,consensus60%CSI300(RHS)earningsestimaterevisionbreadthcontinuedtoseeacceleratingdownward50%5000momentum.40%30%4500NorthboundnetoutflowstotaledUS$1.2bnduringApril18-24,markingfive20%consecutiveweeksofnetoutflows:NorthboundMTDnetoutflowstotalUS$2.6bn10%4000andYTDnetinflowstotalUS$6.9bn.SouthboundnetinflowswereUS$2.7bnfrom0%April18-24,withYTDandMTDnetinflowsreachingUS$26.0bnandUS$9.1bn,44%respectively.3500Marketsentimentlikelytore...