Morgan Stanley-China Equity Strategy A-Share Sentiment Declined Amid Earni...-107272736

MMarch29,202405:53AMGMTUpdateChinaEquityStrategyAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522848-6853A-ShareSentimentDeclinedLauraWangAmidEarningsPressureandGeopoliticalUncertaintyEquityStrategistLaura.Wang@morganstanley.comSentimentlikelytoberangeboundasmacrosofteningreappearedinMarchwhilegeopoliticaluncertaintiesstayontheExhibit1:MSA-shareSentimentIndicatorrisegivenelectionsthisyear.PreferA-sharesoveroffshore.(MSASI):52%(weighted),-6pptvs.March20A-shareinvestorsentimentdeclinedvs.thepriorweek:Weightedandsimple100%MSASI(Simple)=6000MSASIsdecreasedby6pptand7ppt,to52%and47%,respectively.Averagedaily90%MSASI(Weighted)turnover(ADT)forA-shares,equityfuturesandNorthboundduringMarch21-2780%MSASI(Simple)Current75%5500decreasedby2%,7%and6%,respectively,vs.thepriorcycle,whileADTforChiNext70%MSASI(Weighted)Current5000duringthesameperiodincreasedby1%.RSI30-dayforCSI300declinedby10.7ppt60%CSI300(RHS)duringthesameperiod.Consensusearningsestimatesrevisionbreadthisstill50%negative,anditsdownwardrevisionmomentumofconsensusearningsestimates40%4500continuestoaccelerate.30%20%52%NorthboundnetoutflowstotaledUS$851mnduringMarch21-27,endingthe10%4000seventhstraightweekofnetinflowssinceFebruary:NorthboundYTDnetinflows0%47%nowsitatUS$9.3bnandMTDnetinflowsareUS$2.7bn.Southboundnetinflow3500wasUS$3.1bnduringthiscycle,withYTDandMTDnetinflo...