JPMorgan Econ FI-Japan Down another gear in early 1Q data-106611513

JPMORGANJapanEconomicResearch21February2024Japan:Downanothergearinearly1Qdata•ManufacturingsentimentflipsnegativeinFebruaryEconomicandPolicyResearch•Autosectorshutdownsweighingonactivity•ExportsweakenedthroughJanuaryonbroad-baseddeclinesBenjaminShatilSentimentamonglargemanufacturersfell7pointsto-1intheFebruaryReuters(81-3)6736-1730Tankansurvey,thefirsttimesinceAprillastyearthatthebalanceofrespondentsbenjamin.shatil@jpmorgan.comhavereportednegativebusinessconditions.Non-manufacturingsentimentslippedJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.asmaller3pointsto26,leavingtheindexroughlyinlinewithitsfairlyhighlevelthroughthepastseveralmonths.Themanufacturingsectordataundershotourexpectationsforamodestrise;therisknowisthatThursday’smanufacturingPMIalsocomesinweak.Afterabriefstabilizationinmanufacturing,activityappearstobeslidingagain.Sentimentamongmanufacturershasfallenfortwoconsecutivemonths,inpartreflectingthedragfromscheduledplantshutdownsatalargeautoproducer.Autosectorsentimentdeclined14points,postingitssecondconsecutivemonthlyfall,andleavingtheindexatitslowestlevelsinceearlylastyear.Outlookindicessuggestsomeimprovementinbusinessconditionsthrough1Q;producersessentiallyexpectconditionstoreturntotheir(fairlydepressed)Januarylevels.Bycontrast,servicessectorsentimentcontinuestoholdup.Retailsentimentremainsclosetotwodecadehi...