JPMorgan Econ FI-US Fixed Income Overview We’ll get there fast and then we’ll...-107172510

PhoebeWhiteAC(1-212)834-3092HollyCunningham(1-212)834-5683NorthAmericaFixedIncomeJPMORGANphoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.comholly.cunningham@jpmorgan.comStrategyJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC22March2024LiamLWash(1-212)834-5230liam.wash@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCUSFixedIncomeOverviewWe’llgettherefastandthenwe’lltakeitslow•DovishmessagingfromtheMarchFOMCmeetingallowedTreasuryyieldstodeclineandcreditspreadstotighten.Withrisksofashallowereasingcycleincreasing,welookforcarry-efficientwaystoadddurationexposure.Creditspreadscontinuetotightentowardpost-GFCtights,withtechnicalandfundamentalfactorsremainingsupportive•WereviewthemonthlyTICdataforJanuary.Foreigninvestorspurchased$80.2bnoflong-termsecuritiesacrossUSfixedincomeproducts,drivenbyforeignprivateinves-tors.DemandwasconcentratedamongEuroareainvestors•Economics:AttheMarchFOMCmeetingthe2024dotswereleftunrevisedshowing75bpofcutsthisyear,whilethe2025and2026dotswereeachrevised25bphigher.MeanwhilePowellstruckamoredovishtone,attributingthelatestfirminflationread-ingsto“bumpsintheroad”to2%•Treasuries:Withthisweek’sFedmeetingsupportingthestartofagradualeasingcycleinJune,welookatyieldandcurvemovesaroundother“mini”easingcycles,namely1995and2019.Onaverage,yieldstendtodeclinemorethan125bpinthesixmonthspriortothefirstcutandwestillseeroomforthecurve...