JoyceChangAC(1-212)834-4203StrategicResearchJPMORGANjoyce.chang@jpmorgan.com13February2024J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCAmyHoAC(1-212)6229364amy.ho@jpmchase.com2024USElectionWatchTooearlytomakeassumptionsontheoutcomeofthepresidentialelectionsWehostedthefirstwebinarinour2024USElectionWatchseriesonFebruary8,featuringtwoseasonedindependentpolicyandpoliticalexpertswithdeepexperienceanalyzingDemocraticandRepublicanprioritiesandagenda.NotethatourmeetingsareconductedunderChathamHouserulesandthatsomeoftheviewsinthisnoterepresenttheperspectivesofthespeakersandarenotnecessarilytheopinionsofJ.PMorganResearchanalysts.ClickhereforareplayofthecallandhereforouraccompanyingPowerPointpresentation.DespitebettingmarketsandinternationalviewspredictingaTrumpvictory(Figure1),bothofourguestBetingods–204U.SPrspeakersseetheupcomingelectionasBiden’stoloseandshareabasecaseofanarrowBidenpresidentialvictory,althoughconvictionisnotthathighninemonthsbeforeanelection.TheyalsoexpectasplitCongresswiththeDemocratstakingtheHouseandtheRepublicanstakingtheSenateasthemostlikelyoutcome.ForadditionalbackgroundontheUSelectionsandgeopoliticalimplications,seeourreportonWhattowatchinthe2024ElectionSuperbowl,JoyceChangetal.,10Jan.Figure1:Bettingodds–2024U.S.PresidentFigure2:HowtheworldviewsUSleadersandpoliticalpartiesRealClearPolitics(RCP)BettingAverage,3Jan...
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