AccessibleversionGlobalRatesWeeklyConfidencetestTheView:Marketslackconviction,yetnotasmuchas02February2024centralbanksRatesResearchCentralBanksthisweekflaggedtheneedforgreaterconfidenceintheinflationoutlookGlobalbeforetheycanembarkinratecuts.Themarketremainsmoresanguine,especiallyinlightofnascentrisksaroundUSregionalbanks.Wesuggestafewmoneymarkettrades.TableofContents─S.SalimOurmediumtermviews2Rates:ConfidencetestOurkeyforecasts2US:JanFOMCpushedoutfirstcut&QTtiming,butourcoredurationviewshold.Whatwelikerightnow2Quarterlyrefundinginlinewithexpectations;hedgenon-softlandingoutcomes.TheView3EU:WeenternewtradesintheEURfrontend,continuetomonitorweeklysupplypressuresanddiscussEGBratings,withabullishviewinparticularonGreekbonds.Rates–US4UK:RatesmarketchosetofocusonthemoredovishelementsoftheBoEMPCmeeting;Rates–EU6weseecurrentpricingasabest-casescenario.Rates–UK8AU&NZ:WerecommendpayingMarch2024OISwith5bpsofcutspricedandretainourrecommendationfortighterswapspreadsgivenheightenedriskofRBAbondsales.Rates–AU&NZ10JP:HawkishJanuaryBoJMPMheightenedexpectationsforMar/Aprpolicychange.Rates–JP12Frontend:Billsupply:higherw/QTshift&refundingFrontend–US14US:WerevisehigherourCY'24billsupplyestimatesafterJanFOMC/QTshift&Inflation–UK16refunding.Supply–US18Inflation:TwinpeaksTechnicals20UK:WecommendMPCforitspushbackagainstrat...
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