Morgan Stanley Fixed-Investor Presentation China Economics Takeaways on NPC and...-106970010

MMarch10,202408:58PMGMTMorganStanleyAsiaLimitedUpdateInvestorPresentationAsiaPacificRobinXing+8522848-6511+8522239-7820ChinaEconomics:TakeawaysonNPCandExports/ChiefChinaEconomistCPIBeatRobin.Xing@morganstanley.comZhipengCaiEconomistZhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.comRelatedreports:ChinaEconomics:NPC:FiscalPackageInsufficient(5Mar2024)ChinaEconomics:NPC:Supply-centricFiscalPackageExplained(6Mar2024)ChinaEconomics:ExportsStrengthMayNotBeSustainable(7Mar2024)Forimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MUpdateInsufficientFiscalEasingAnnouncedbyNPC…ButsuggestedverymildexpansioninaugmentedfiscaldeficitBeijingsetanupbeatgrowthtargetof5%%GDPGrowthGrowthTarget98765.0544.23210201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024ESource:NBS,governmentwebsites,MorganStanleyResearchestimates2MUpdate…ImplyingDownsideRisktoNominalGDPGrowthNormalGDPgrowthmayevenfallshortofourbelow-ContinuedslippageinnominalGDPmaytriggercorporateconsensusforecastsectortoslowwagegrowthNominalGDPGrowthYoY%WagegrowthproxyNominalGDPgrowth1215%111012%Forecast989%766%Consensus:544.9%31Q24E:2~3.32023:4.6%MSe:4.3%3%downsiderisk?0%Mar-192012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024ESep-19Mar-20Sep-20Mar-21Sep-21Mar-22Sep-22Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Source:NBS,CEIC,Wind,MorganStanleyResearchestimatesMorganStanleyResearch3MUpda...