The Flow Show-Bull Traps & Bear Slaps-240502

AccessibleversionTheFlowShowBullTraps&BearSlapsScoresontheDoors:crypto22.0%,gold11.5%,oil9.8%,commods7.9%,stocks4.5%,02May2024USdollar4.2%,cash1.8%,HYbonds0.5%,IGbonds-2.7%,govtbonds-5.9%YTD.InvestmentStrategyThePriceisRight:sinceMarch13th(Bitcoinpeak)whenmarketflippedfrompricinginGlobalmorecutstolesscutsthanFed“dotplot”(Charts3&4),MOVEback>100,“flashcrash”inMXN,JPY,cocoa,27“plungingcorporatebonds”(pricedown>5centsinday)inApril(Chart5)…higher-for-longer”stuffhappening”;goodnews…“tailrisks”ofFedhike&JPYcollapsenowlowerafterFed“eased”(lessQT)&Japanspent$55bntosupportFX.TaleoftheTape:“ABC”AnythingButChinatradereversedbigpast3months(ChinaH-sharesbestperformingglobalstockmarket&Chinabondyieldsnolongerfalling);“ABB”AnythingButBondstradehasnotreversed(perpetuating“longmonopolies,shortleverage”incredit&stocks);bondsinsecularbearbuthardlandingriskspricedsolowthatcomingbearmarketrallyinbondsonweakerdatalikelyvicious.TheBiggestPicture:bestcoincidentindicatorofprofits=ISM…ISMcontractingagaininApril–Chart7);bestleadingindicatorofISM&profits=neworders/inventoryratio…down3consecutivemonths(Chart2).Chart2:LeadingindicatorofISMhasrolledoverMichaelHartnettISMManufacturingPMIvsISMneworders/inventories(pushedforward3months)InvestmentStrategistBofAS70ISMMfgPMIISMneworders/inventories(pushedforward3m,RHS)1.8...