Morgan Stanley Fixed-US Economics Global Macro Strategy FOMC Preview Preachin...-107816035

MApril25,202401:50PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCIdeaUSEconomics&GlobalMacroStrategyNorthEllenZentner+1212296-4882America+1212761-1445ChiefUSEconomist+1212761-2647FOMCPreview:PreachingEllen.Zentner@morganstanley.com+1212761-4630Patience+1212761-5287GuneetDhingra,CFA+1212761-1837AnnouncementoftaperingQTishere.Lackofinflationprogress+1212761-8573thisyearandbalancesheetdetailsgetheightenedfocusintheStrategist+1212761-0857Q&A.Powellemphasizespatienceamidbumpyinflationdata.Guneet.Dhingra@morganstanley.comWecontinuetoseeafirstcutinJuly.Ourstrategistsstayneutral+8136836-5466onduration.JayBacow+1212761-6051KeyexpectationsStrategist+1212761-6076Jay.Bacow@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779•TheFOMCremainsonholdat5.375%.Weexpectlittlechangetothe+1212761-0407FOMCstatementbutseetheriskofamorehawkishpressconferenceSamDCoffingivenChairPowell'srecentcommentaryonthelackofprogressoninflation.EmphasiswillbeonremainingpatientastheFedawaitsEconomistmoreconvincingdata.Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com•IntheQ&A,Powellpointstoanexpectationofratecuts"atsomeAndrewMWatrouspoint,"buttheFedmaybewaiting"longerthanexpected"tocutrates.WeexpectsignalingontaperingQTtocomeatthismeetingStrategistwithanannouncementoftheparametersandstartdatetobegininAndrew.Watrous@morganstanley.comJune.MatthewHornbach•Ourratesstrategistsdonotexpectmarketstopricemorehawkishou...