Morgan Stanley Fixed-US Economics Employment Report Preview-106280642

MFebruary1,202402:48PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCIdeaUSEconomicsNorthAmericaSamDCoffin+1212761-4630+1212296-4882EmploymentReportPreviewEconomist+1212761-8573Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com+1212761-0857Weestimatepayrollsrose215kinJanuary,theunemployment+1212761-2779ratewasunchanged,andtheparticipationraterose0.1pp.EllenZentnerEarningsforecastedtoincreaseontrend,0.3%M.Wealsoaddresslastmonth'sweaknessinthehouseholdsurveyChiefUSEconomistemploymentmeasures.Benchmarkrevisionstopayrollsontap.Ellen.Zentner@morganstanley.comExhibit1:EmploymentreportforecastdetailsDiegoAnzoateguiEconomistDiego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.comSarahAWolfeEconomistSarah.Wolfe@morganstanley.comLenoyDujonUS/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.comEmploymentReport:Forecasts&RecentHistoryEst.ConsensusActualJan-24Jan-24180Dec-23Nov-233MMAYear-Ago148216472Changeinnonfarmpayrolls(thous.)2153.816417316535362.63.73.4Privatepayrolls16534.362.513611562.40.334.334.6Unemploymentrate(%)3.74.10.43.73.80.34.14.4Laborforceparticipationrate(%)62.662.862.7Averageweeklyhours34.434.434.3Averagehourlyearnings(%M)0.30.40.4%Y4.14.04.1Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,(BLS),MorganStanleyResearchforecastsForimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MIdeaJanuaryEmploymentLowjoblessclaimsandwarmweatherinearlyJanuarysuggeststrongpayrolls.Weex...