JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-106176839

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAGlobalDataWatch26January2024DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesStillgoingstrong•RealGDPgrewata3.3%ratelastquarterandweThemarqueereportoftheweekwasthefirstlookat4QGDPgrowth.The3.3%outturnwasanupsidesurprise,drivennowlookfora1.75%gainthisquartermostlybyalarger-than-anticipatedinventorybuild.Stronginventorieslastquartercoulddetractfromgrowththisquar-•CorePCEinflationincreasedatonlya2.0%ratelastter:withflusherstockpilesattheendof4Qfirmsmayseelessneedtorampupproductiontomeetdemandthisquarter.quarterand2.9%intheyearendingDecemberEvenso,awayfrominventoriesitwasasolidreport.Privatedomesticdemand,sometimesconsideredasortof“core•Whilewelcomingtheinflationprogress,weexpecttheGDP”measure,grewatarespectable2.6%rate(Figure1).FOMCtobecautiousinsignalingcutsFigure1:RealGDPandprivatedomesticdemand%ch,saar•Weexpectnonfarmemploymentgrowthof225,000in15PrivatedomesticJanuary,onfewerlayoffsthanusualdemandInthesecondhalfoflastyeartheUSeconomyachievedtheelusivesoftlanding:coreinflationglidingtoward2%with10GDPfewbumpsinthelabormarketoreconomicactivity.Tothecontrary,growthwasquitefirm.Thisweeksawthefirst5reportonGDPgrowthin4Q23,whichcamein...