JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-106804508

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.com01March2024JPMorganChaseBankNADanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesApartfromPowell’stestimony,wealsowillcontinuetomon-itorlegislativedevelopmentsinWashington,DC.Congress•CorePCEinflationwassolidinJanuarypassedabilltopreventapartialgovernmentshutdownfrom•Januaryreportsshowpullbackinrealconsumptionstartingthisweek,althoughnowfundingagreementswillstillneedtobepassedtopreventashutdownofsomegovernmentbutmixednewsoverallagenciesonMarch8andothersonMarch22.•RealGDPgrowthforecastfor1Qraisedto2.25%Afirmmonthforcoreinflation•ExpectstrongnonfarmjobgrowthagaininFebruaryThefirmcoreCPIprintforJanuarywasfollowedbyafirm(forecast:200,000withunemploymentrateat3.7%)readingoncorePCEinflationforthemonth.TheheadlinePCEpriceindexrose0.3%inJanuarywhilethecoreindexThePCEpricedatawerethefocusformanyheadingintotherose0.4%.Thismonthlyincreaseinthecorewasthelargestpastweek.TheJanuarydatawereuneventfulinthesensethatmonthlygaininayearandcamelargelyduetofirmnessintheycameoutprettyclosetoconsensusexpectations,buttheythecoreservicesex.housingaggregate—pricesforthiswerenoteworthyinthattheyshowedafirmmonthforcore“supercore”measurejumped0.6%inJanuary,thelargest(and“sup...