JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-107708491

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.com19April2024JPMorganChaseBankNAMichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comdaniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesitfeltmoreconfidentthatinflationwasheadingbacktotheCommittee’starget.Whilethisearlierviewstilllikelyholds,•RetailsalesbeatexpectationsinMarchandshowthisweekheindicatedthat“therecentdatahaveclearlynotgivenusgreaterconfidence,andinsteadindicatethatit’slike-upwardrevisionstoearlierfigureslytotakelongerthanexpectedtoachievethatconfidence.”Powelllikelyhaspushedbackhisexpectationsforwhenthe•Powellacknowledgeslackofprogressoninflation,butFedwillstarttolowerratesrelativetowhattheywereafewmonthsago,althoughhehasn’tofferedspecificguidanceastoratehikesarenotonthehorizonwhichmeetingthefirstcutmightcome.•Businesssurveysmixed,joblessclaimsstilllowEvenasexpectationshaveshiftedwithrespecttothetiming•1QGDPreleaseandMarchPCEpricedatasetforofthefirstratecut,theFOMCdoesnotappeartobeplanningtoraiseratesbeyondthetighteningalreadydonethiscycle.nextweekOnThursdayNYFedpresidentWilliamsansweredaquestionbyacknowledgingthat“ifthedataaretellingusthatweThemaindatareleasefromthepastweekwastheMarchwouldneedhigherinterestratestoachieveourgo...