Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global EM Strategist Kenya Leads the Way-106597806

MFebruary20,202410:56AMGMTGlobalIdeaGlobalEMStrategistMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207677-3254+44207425-2509KenyaLeadstheWayJamesKLord+44207425-3282FollowingtherecentUSDmove,wetakeoffourremaininglongStrategist+1212296-8101USDtrades(CLP,THBandPHP).Instead,wesuggestRVtradesJames.Lord@morganstanley.com+1212761-4012withinEMwithafocusoncarry,includingBRLandINR.Inrates+1212761-2344thefocusisfrontendandRVtradeswhileincreditwereduceNevilleZMandimika+1212761-4703betaexposurefurtherduetotightervaluations.Strategist+8522239-7983FX&EMStrategy:Kenya'sUSDbondissuanceisanimportantpositivenotonlyforNeville.Mandimika@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303Kenyabutalsofortheassetclassasawhole.Itsupportstwoofourkeyviewsfortheyearahead.First,asexternalconditionsimprove,marketaccesswillopenuptoPascalNBodelower-ratedissuers,evenifitmeansissuingataround10%.Second,thenumberofdefaultsintheEMsovereigncreditindexwillfall.Thatsaid,thefocusformostStrategistcountriesisstilltoconsolidatefiscalsfurther,inparticularasinterestratecostsstayPascal.Bode@morganstanley.comhighversushistory.MorganStanley&Co.LLCSovereignCreditStrategy:WefocusonstancechangeswithinCEEMEA.InSub-SaharanAfrica,SenegalhasbeentopicalandwemovedthecredittoalikestanceSimonWaeverfollowingpositivedevelopmentsaroundelectionscheduling,whichshouldbringthefocusbacktothelonger-termst...