JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-106565203

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAGlobalDataWatch16February2024DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesexpectmajornewscomingfromtheeconomicreportsintheupcomingholiday-shortenedworkweek.•JanuaryCPIwasabrusquereminderthatthepathTheundeadCPIreportbackto2%inflationwillhavebumpsonthewayTheJanuaryCPIdatawerefirmerthanexpectations,withthe•Thetrendinretailsalesgrowthlookstobemoderatingheadlineup0.3%duringthemonthandthecoreindexrising0.4%(0.392%tothreedecimals).Thebroadtrendinheadlineafterastrong2023inflationcontinuedtomoderate,withtherelatedyear-agoratecoolingfrom3.4%to3.1%oyabetweenDecemberandJanu-•DisappointingprintsonJanuarymanufacturingout-ary.Theyear-agorateonthecorealsocontinuedtotrendlowerintoJanuary,butitishardtofeelconfidentthattheputandhousingstartsbroadtrendforcoreinflationismoderatingwhentheJanuaryincreasewasthelargestmonthlygainsinceApril2023and•FedminutesnextweekcouldshedlightonQTplanstherelatedthree-monthrunratepickeduptoitshighestlevelsinceJune2023,hitting4.0%saarinJanuary(Figure1).Thestoryof2023wasoneofdownsidesurprisesoninflationWhiletheJanuarystrengthinthecoreCPImarkedachangeandupsidesurprisesongrowth.Thisweek’snewsaboutthefromwhathadbeenasof...