JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-108018194

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.com03May2024JPMorganChaseBankNAMichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comdaniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesintheweekthatalsoshowedfurthersignsofcoolinglabordemandandhiringbutnosignsofrisingseparations.Low•Apriljobgrowthsolid(175k)butbelowexpectationsandsteadyweeklyjoblessclaimscontinuedtosignalthatthis•Averagehourlyearningstrendhascooled,butECIgradualrebalancingofthelabormarketishappeningwithoutasignificantuptickinjobloss.Oneunwelcomesurprisethissurprisedhigherweekwasthefirmer-than-expectedECIprintfor1Q.•TheFOMCstayedonholdaswasexpected,signalingNonfarmpayrollgrowthslowedto175,000lastmonth,belowthe269,000averagegainoverthepriorthreemonthsandtheeventualratecutsarestillthebaselinelowestreadingsinceOctober(Figure1).Thepublicsectorwasabigcontributortothestepdowninjobgrowthreported•WatchFedspeaknextweekwithlimiteddatareleasesforApril,withonly8,000governmentjobsaddedthatmonth—downfromthe60,000averagepaceinthepriorsixTheFOMCleftratesonholdatitsmeetingthisweekandmonths.PrivateservicesectoremploymentgrewatasolidindicatedthattheeconomicnewsfromthepastfewmonthsclipinApril(153,000),withhealthcareandsocialassistanceshowedalackoffurt...