Morgan Stanley-China Financials Feb TSF growth slowed as expected, further...-107052327

MMarch15,202402:40PMGMTUpdateChinaFinancialsAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522848-6729+8523963-2224FebTSFgrowthslowedasRichardXu,CFA+8523963-4624expected,furtherslowdownlikelyEquityAnalystRichard.Xu@morganstanley.comFebTSFgrowthslowedto9%from9.5%inJan2024duetoCNYimpactandreducedfront-loading.ThesupportfromBerylYanggovernmentbondissuancecouldbereducedin2024,andLGFVtighteningcouldlast,whichcouldneverthelessleadtoslowerResearchAssociateTSFgrowthin2024.Beryl.Yang@morganstanley.comTSFgrowthslowedinFeb2024asweexpectedduetoCNYandreducedfront-ChiyaoHuangloading:Headlinetotalsocialfinancinggrowthslowedsequentially,to9%yoyfrom9.5%inJanuary2024.NewTSFaddedRmb1.56tninFeb2024,downRmb1.6tnyoy,EquityAnalystordownRmb4.94tnMoM.WethinkthemonthlyvolatilitypartiallyresultsfromChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.comdifferenceinCNY,asnewTSFinJan-Feb2024wasdownonlyRmb1.1tnyoy.NewRMBloanswereRmb980bninFeb2024,downRmb839bnYoY,ordownChinaFinancialsAttractiveRmb3.86tnMoM,duetoaggressivefront-loadinginFeb2023.NetissuanceofcorporatebondsatRmb176bn,downRmb191bnyoy.WestillexpectcorporatebondAsiaPacificissuancecouldslowin2024withcontinuedLGFVtightening,especiallywithhigherIndustryViewrequirementsonqualityandreturnsofthenewprojects.Governmentbondissuance,whichwillcontinuetoserveasthemainsupporttoTSFin2024,alsoRelatedreports:slowedyoyinFebfroma...