Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global EM Strategist IMF Takeaways-107893583

MApril29,202409:54AMGMTGlobalIdeaGlobalEMStrategistMorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc++44207677-3254+44207425-2509IMFTakeawaysJamesKLord+44207425-3282WepresentourIMFtakeaways,wheredebateoverDM,aswellStrategist+1212296-8101asEM,fiscalswasstrong.USfiscalconcernsarenotdominatingJames.Lord@morganstanley.com+1212761-4012marketsthough,withUSDonthefrontfoot.+1212761-2344NevilleZMandimika+1212761-4703FX&EMStrategy:Thepathtocarrytradesresuming(resultinginpartialratherthanbroadUSDstrength)restsonaresumptionofUSdisinflationalongsideaStrategist+8522239-7983continuedrobustUSeconomy.Thisremainsourbasecase.Inthenearterm,Neville.Mandimika@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303positioninginUSDremainslongandthemarkethasrepricedtheFedpathsignificantly,likelytiltingriskstowardsalowerUSDintheimmediateaftermathofPascalNBodetheFOMCthisweek.WeseelittleevidencethatthedebateovertheUSfiscalpositionisimpactingUSD.StrategistPascal.Bode@morganstanley.comSovereignCreditStrategy:WereviewourmaintakeawaysfromtheIMFSpringMeetings,wherewehostedinvestors,policymakersandIMFstaffoverthreedays.MorganStanley&Co.LLCOnthemacroside,wefoundnotableinterestinDMfiscalsinadditiontotheusualworriesaboutEMfiscals.Thenear-termgrowthoutlookisabitbetterthanmostSimonWaeverexpectedsixmonthsago,intheUSforsurebutalsomoreglobally.Thatsaid,long-termgrowthisstillthekeyissue,with...