JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-107170364

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.com22March2024JPMorganChaseBankNADanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesOtherreportsfromthepastweekcontinuedthemixedtoneoftheMarchbusinesssurveys.Andthejoblessclaimsdatacon-•MedianSEPdotconsistentwiththree25bpratecutstinuedtosignalthatthelabormarketremainsstrong.Therearemanymorereportsscheduledforreleasenextweek,thisyearstartinginJuneincludingFebruaryprintsonconsumerspending,newandpendingexistinghomesales,durablegoodsordersandship-•Housingdatafirmedthisweekments,internationaltrade,andsometypesofbusinessinven-•Marchbusinesssurveyslookedmixedtories.Overallwethinkthedatawillbeconsistentwitheco-•Nextweek:expectcorePCEinflationat2.8%oyaandnomicgrowthmoderatingin1Qandwecontinuetoforecast2.25%realGDPgrowthforthatquarter.Inflationdataalso0.2%monthlygainforrealconsumptionwillremaininfocus,andweestimatethatthecorePCEpriceindexrose0.32%inFebruary,withthismeasureup2.8%oya.Thisweek’sFOMCmeetingdidn’tproducelargesurprises,Thisyear-agoreadingisconsistentwiththeestimateprovidedbutthemostnotableoutcomeofthatmeetingwasseveralbyPowellinthelatestFOMCpressconference,althoughourremarksfromFedchairPowellthatleftlittledoubtabouthisforecastforthemonthlychangeisapp...