JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-107556718

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.com12April2024JPMorganChaseBankNADanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesMy,ohmy,MarchCPI•CoreCPIbeatsexpectationsagain,up0.4%inMarchTheCPIforMarchcameoutaboveexpectationsintermsof•Inflationfirmnessandtightlabormarketcouldpushboththe0.4%increaseintheheadlineaswellasthe0.4%gainforthecore.CoreCPIinflationgenerallyhasbeensur-backFedratecutsprisingtotheupsidelately,andoverthemostrecentthreemonths,thisindexhasjumpedasolid4.2%saar.Foramore•FOMCminutespointtoreducingmonthlycapsondovishtakeoninflation,the0.359%Marchincreaseinthecoretothreedecimalswasalow-side0.4%gainwithround-Treasuryrunoffsooningandtherelatedyear-agomeasureforMarch(3.8%oya)wasstillonthelowendoftherecently-reportedrangeoffig-•Weexpectdecentretailsalesnextweek(headline:ures.Butitisgettinghardertodismisstherecentfirmnessasbeingtemporaryortransitoryinnatureastherecentupside0.3%,control:0.5%)surpriseshavebeencontinuing(Figure1).Moreover,itdoesnotappearthattheupsidesurpriseshavebeenisolatedinaTheMarchCPIreportwasthemaineventinthepastweekverylimitedsetofspecificareas.Andtheclosely-watchedandonceagainthecoreCPIbeatexpectations.ThecoreCPI“supercore”measure(coreservicesex.tenants’rentandin...