Morgan Stanley Fixed-US Credit Strategy Picking Our Spots-105816028

MJanuary9,202409:00PMGMTMorganStanley&Co.LLCIdeaUSCreditStrategyNorthAmericaVishwasPatkar+1212761-8041+1212761-0165PickingOurSpotsStrategist+1212761-1199Vishwas.Patkar@morganstanley.com+1212761-3117TherallyinDecemberlimitsdirectionalupsidefromhere.Inleveragedcredit,weseeroomtocatchupinCCCsandLoans.InJoyceJiangIG,thelongendlooksunattractive,whilethefrontendshouldseeinflowsfromcash.StrategistJoyce.Jiang@morganstanley.comKeyTakeawaysKarenChenOursoftlandingviewfor2024remainsintact.Butrichvaluations,bumpymacrodata,anddelayedpolicyeasingmakeforatoughershort-termset-up.StrategistValuationsfavorIGoverHY,butwethinkqualitycompressionWITHINbothKaren.Chen@morganstanley.comassetsislikelyshortterm.Inleveragedcredit,weseeawindowforCCCstooutperform.OurpreferenceforIanRobinsonLoansoversBondsismorestrategic.InIG,westicktothefrontendwherecarryandincomeremainreasonable.Long-Strategistendtechnicalsshouldweakenonboththedemandandsupplyfronts.Ian.Robinson@morganstanley.comInsynthetics,wetakeofftheCDXdecompressiontradeandpreferalternativeswithlessexposuretoCCCs(shortHY15-100%vs.LongCDXIG).MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchas...