MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAGlobalDataWatch09February2024DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesThedataflowpicksupnextweek,withboththeJanuaryretailsalesandCPIreports.Weexpectthatseasonaladjust-•Fedrhetoriccontinuedtosignalratecutsthisyear,butmentfactors—whichmayhaveflatteredDecemberretailsales—willpresentaheadwindtoJanuaryretailsales,andwenotinMarchlookfortotalsalestoslip0.9%andsalesintheimportantcontrolcategorytobeflat.FortheCPIweexpectdeclining•Joblessclaimsandbusinesssurveyspointtoongoingenergypriceswilllimittheheadlinefiguretojusta0.1%increase,whichwouldtaketheyear-agogaindownto2.9%expansionin1Q24from3.4%inDecember.Wealsolookforahigh-side0.2%increaseintheex-foodandenergycoremeasure,helddown•Fiscalyear’24federaldeficitlookingalittlelessbad,byanexpecteddeclineinusedvehicleprices.butveryfarfromgoodMixedcreditnews•Nextweek’sJanuaryretailsalesexpectedweak,andTheFed’sSeniorLoanOfficerOpinionSurvey(SLOOS)showedlesswidespreadtighteninginlendingstandardsforcoreCPIexpectedbenignmanyofthedifferentreportedloantypesinthemostrecentquarter(generallycoincidingwith4Q).Forexample,anetThenewsflowconcerningtheUSeconomywasfairlylight14.5%ofbanksreportedtighte...
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