JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-105901290

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAGlobalDataWatch12January2024DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesFigure1:CoreCPI%m/m,sa•CoreCPIpricesincreased0.3%inDecember,aboutin1.0linewiththeaverageoverthelastyear0.5•4QrealGDPstilltrackingarounda2.0%annualized0.0increase-0.520172018201920202021202220232024•TheFOMCmayslowbalancesheetnormalizationSource:BLS,J.P.Morgansoon,butwestilllookforthefirstcutinJuneRelativetoourexpectations,theupsidesurpriseinthehead-•Weexpectnextweek’sDecemberretailsalesreporttolinemeasurewasdrivenbyafirmer-than-expected0.4%increaseinenergyprices,liftedbyastrong1.3%increaseincomeinonthesoftsideelectricityprices.ThefoodCPIwasup0.2%,inlinewithrecentincreases.Foodawayfromhome,agoodmeasureofThehighly-anticipatedDecemberCPIreportdidn’tdeliverbroadinflationarypressures,wasupatolerable0.3%.Withinanybigsurprises.Whiletheheadlinemeasureincreasedthecoremeasure,pricesforcoregoodswereflatlastmonth.0.3%,atickfirmerthanexpected,theex-foodandenergyBothnew(0.3%)andused(0.5%)vehiclepriceswereuplastcorecategoryalsoincreased0.3%,whichwasinlinewithmonth(Figure2),thoughweexpectusedvehiclepricesexpectations.Thecoremeasureisnowup3.9%overayearshouldmoderateinco...