Morgan Stanley-China Financials Higher government bond issuance offsets sl...-105929508

MJanuary14,202406:14PMGMTUpdateChinaFinancialsAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522848-6729+8523963-2224HighergovernmentbondRichardXu,CFA+8523963-4624issuanceoffsetsslowerloangrowthinDecEquityAnalystRichard.Xu@morganstanley.comFull-yearTSFgrowthcameinat9.5%for2023,withgovernmentbondissuanceservingasamainsupportasloanandBerylYangdepositgrowthmoderated.WecontinuetobelieveTSFgrowthwillmoderateto8-9%in2024amidaninvestmentslowdownResearchAssociateandLGFVtightening.Beryl.Yang@morganstanley.com2023TSFgrowthwas9.5%,aslightpickupfromNovember,helpedbyChiyaoHuanggovernmentbondissuanceasweexpected:TSFaddedRmb1.94tninDecember,upRmb634bnYoY.GovernmentbondissuanceatRmb928bnservedasamainsupport,EquityAnalystupRmb647bnYoY,duetolowbaseinDec2022andlocalrefinancingbondissuanceChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.comundertheLGFVswapprogram.Thiscouldbeevidencedinweakcorporatebondissuance,whichsawanetdecreaseofRmb263bninDecember,downRmb396bnMorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinMoM.AswehighlightedinourrecentLGFVtrackerreports,theincrementalthe2024InstitutionalInvestorAll-AsiatighteningonLGFVfinancingcouldlastlonger,likelyto1Q24,andbroaderthantheResearchTeamSurvey.Requestyourballotmarketexpects.Inthemeantime,newRMBloansaddedRmb1.1tninDecember,orhere.Rmb335bnlowerthanDec2022,withacontinuedslowdownonthecorporateside.ChinaFinancialsAttractive...