JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-108164780

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commichael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com10May2024JPMorganChaseBankNAMuratTasci(1-212)622-0288DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039murat.tasci@jpmchase.comdaniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatescontinuetomoderate(hitting3.7%inApril).Officialsarealsolikelymonitoringavarietyofinflationexpectationmea-•Fedofficialsconfirmviewthatratehikesarenotthesures,andthepreliminaryMayUniversityofMichiganreportshowedincreasedconsumerinflationexpectationsthismonth.baselineWhilenotasimportantastheCPIreport,theAprilretailsales•Nochangeinourmainviewswithlimiteddatanewsdataalsowillbeusefultotracknextweek.Webelievethe•Nextweek,welookforAprilcoreCPItobeup0.3%headlineincreased0.6%andweexpectmoremodestgrowth•Weforecastdecentretailsalesheadlinewithcontrolintheimportantcontrolgroup,withthisaggregateup0.2%.OtherreleasesnextweekincludeavarietyofMaybusinessgroupup0.2%surveysandtheAprilIPreport.PowellisalsoscheduledtospeakonMay14andotherFedofficialswillmakeremarksatTheeconomicnewswasquietthisweekfollowingalotofvariouspointsduringtheupcomingweek.eventsduringthepriorweekandaheadofabusyfewdaysofdatareportsscheduledfornextweek.Withlimitednewinfor-Claimsjumpisprobablynoisemation,ourmainviewontheeconomydidnotreallychange.Wedidseecommentsfromav...