JPMorgan-Hong Kong Property The residential market is losing steam-107586923

JPMORGANAsiaPacificEquityResearch15April2024HongKongPropertyTheresidentialmarketislosingsteamAftersomeshort-termexcitementpostthepolicyeasing,theresidentialmarketChinaPropertyshowssignsoflosingsteamagain:(1)secondaryhomeprice,aftera2.8%reboundover3weeks,dropped1.5%lastweek(thesteepestW/Wdeclinein8months-KarlChanACFigure2);(2)CKA’sBlueCoastonlyhita70-75%sell-throughrateinitssecond(852)2800-8513HongKsecdaryhmpix(Ctl)W/karl.chan@jpmorgan.comlaunch.Wethinktheweakermomentumintheprimarymarketisdueto(1)VenusChoidevelopersalreadyattemptingtomildlyraiseprices;(2)ratecutexpectationsaresoftening.Asforthesecondarymarket,volumehasalsoweakened(Figure4)amid(852)2800-8599venus.choi@jpmorgan.comTop10husingeta’wkdcryvlmJocelynGaoaggressivediscountsofferedbydevelopersintheprimarymarket.Wethinkhomepricesmayremainunderpressure,untilaratecutmaterializesandtheinventory(852)2800-8529levelimprovesto10-15Kunits.Inthenearterm,wemaintainourcautiousstancejocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.comonthesector.Ourpreferrednames(likelyrelativeoutperformers)areSinoLandJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.andSwireProperties.TopavoidisNWD,followedbyWharfREIC.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited•Secondaryhomepricemayremainunderpressure:Sincethepeakin2021,secondaryhomepriceshadoncedropped25%,butreboundedby2.8%aftertheremovalofalladditionalstampdutiesattheBudg...