JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-105763955

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAGlobalDataWatch05January2024DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatesJobgrowthstillsolid•JobgrowthwassolidinDecember(216,000)withNonfarmemploymentbeatexpectationsinDecember,increasing216,000,althoughafterdownwardrevisionsofunemploymentrateholdingat3.7%71,000topriormonthsthelevelofemploymentcameinclosetowhatwasanticipated.Therewerealsomixedmessages•FOMCminutessuggestedratecutscouldcomelaterfromtheotherdetailsofthereport.Intheestablishmentsur-vey,averagehourlyearningsincreasedasolid0.4%,butthethisyearaverageworkweektickeddownto34.3hours.Inthehouse-holdsurvey,theunemploymentrateheldunchangedatalow•WecontinuetothinkfirstFedcutoccursinJune3.7%,butthelaborforceparticipationrateslumpedthree-•DecemberCPIforecast:headline:0.2%,core0.3%tenthsto62.5%andthevolatilehouseholdmeasureofemploymentplunged683,000.WecontinuetothinkthattheFOMCwillstartloweringratesinJune,withthenewsfromthepastweeksupportingtheideaFigure1:Nonfarmemploymentandaveragehourlyearningsthataratecutcouldcomefairlysoon,butprobablynotasear-lyasthefirstquarter.Mostimportantly,theDecember000s,sa,3mavg.change%3m/3m,saaremploymentreportshowedsolidjobgrowthcontinuingthrought...