MJanuary4,202408:00PMGMTIdeaChinaIndustrialsAsiaPacificMorganStanleyAsiaLimited++8522239-7821+8523963-03382024Outlook:CycleRecoveryShengZhong+8522239-1118TakesTime+8522848-7107EquityAnalystCapitalgoodsdemandislikelytoremainatacyclicallowinSheng.Zhong@morganstanley.com2024.Traditionalandstaples-relatedcapexdemandcouldbebetterthannewenergy.WeprefernameswithmarketshareJoyZhanggainsinChina,overseasexpansionandlessnewenergyexposure:WeichaiH,Dingli,Haitian,LKTech,Hengli,Inovance.EquityAnalystJoy.Zhang@morganstanley.comWhereareweinthecycle?WethinktheChinaindustrialssegmentwillremainatacyclicallowin2024,givenabackdropofsubparmacrogrowthandovercapacityChelseaWangissuesinChina.Overseasexpansionisacommonstrategyforindustrialscompanies,andwethinkthiswillbeacriticallong-termgrowthdriver,albeitwithchallenges.EquityAnalystVarioussub-sectorsareatslightlydifferentpartsofthecyclecurve(Exhibit1):Jinlin.Wang@morganstanley.com•Bottomedout–Heavy-dutytrucksandrailwayequipmentreachedlowsinSerenaChen2022,andturnedaroundin2023.Weexpecttherecoverytocontinuein2024.Laserislikelytobottomin2024,butwethinktheuptrendwillbeResearchAssociateflatterthanbefore.Serena.Chen@morganstanley.com•Bottomingatcyclicallow–Generalmachinery,automation,testingMorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinequipmentandlithiumbatteryequipment(rankedinorderofcyclepos...
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