JPMorgan Econ FI-Scandi Monthly Outside Influence-107709814

JPMORGANGlobalFXStrategy20April2024ScandiMonthlyOutsideInfluence•InflationcontinuestosurprisetothedownsideinScandinavia,whiletheGlobalFXStrategygrowthoutlookhasimproved.JamesNelliganAC•TheRiksbankhaspositioneditselfforaMayratecut,whileNorgesBankavoid(44-20)3493-6829james.nelligan@jpmorgan.comadovishpivotduetoconcernsaboutthecurrency.Economic&PolicyResearch•ExternalfactorsdominateSEKFXastheKronafindsithardtopricestrongerMortenLunddomesticgrowthwhenUSDvsSEKratespreadswidenaggressively.HoldSEK/CZKlongs.ClosedEUR/SEKputspreadandstoppedoutofshortCHF/morten.lund@jpmorgan.comSEKcashlastweek.GlobalRatesStrategy•TurnneutralNOKfrombearishgivenpotentialfortheoilpricerallytobecomeKhagendraGuptamoredemandthansupplyled,whileBoPflowsstillremainaconcern.(44-20)7134-0486•InRates,wecontinuetolikebullishdurationtradesbothonanoutrightbasiskhagendra.x.gupta@jpmorgan.com(Sweden)andonacrossmarketbasis(SwedenandNorway).StayreceivedOctaviaPopescu1Yx1YStibor.Enter10YSEKswapspreadnarrower.(44-20)3493-5654•Oncrossmarket,enter1Yx1Y/3Yx1YStiborcurvesteepenerversus€STR,octavia.popescu@jpmorgan.comholdreceived1Yx1YNiborversus€STR,andenter1Yx1Y/5Yx5YNiborAlexPharaoncurvesteepenervsSOFR.(44-20)7134-2669alexander.pharaon@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcSeepage26foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comJa...