JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-106038789

MichaelFeroli(1-212)834-5523MuratTasci(1-212)622-0288NorthAmericaEconomicResearchJPMORGANmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.commurat.tasci@jpmchase.comJPMorganChaseBankNAGlobalDataWatch19January2024DanielSilver(1-212)622-6039daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.comUnitedStatessuretoincrease0.22%monthonmonth,whichwouldtaketheyear-agoreadingdownfrom3.2%to3.0%.Whileprog-•Decemberretailsalescappedoffasolidholidayshop-resscontinuestobemadeinbringingcoreinflationbackdowntowardtheFed’s2%goal,Fedofficialsappearinnopingseason,albeitwithsomecaveatsrushtocutrates.Notably,thisweekFedgovernorWaller•Housingappearstobegettingamodestliftfromtheindicatedthatwhilepolicyratescanprobablycomedownthisrecentdeclineinmortgageratesyear,thedecisiontolowerthefundsrateshouldbe“carefully•Evenwithprogressoninflation,Fedofficialslooktocalibratedandnotrushed.”WeheardthisasleaningagainstabeinnohurrytocutratesmoveassoonasMarchandwecontinuetolookforthefirst•Nextweekbringsthefirstlookat4QGDP(2.2%saar)cutattheJuneFOMCmeeting.andDecembercorePCEinflation(0.22%m/m)Monetarypolicyhasn’tbeentheonlyshowintownthisweek.Congresspassedlast-minutefundingforgovernmentagenciesTheeconomicdatareleasedthisweekpointtoaneconomythatotherwisewouldhaveclosedthisweekend.Theshort-thatcontinuestogrowatatrend-likepacearoundtheturnoftermpatchsetsupanotherfundingbattlenextmonth.Adealth...