Deutsche Bank-Thematic Research Geopolitics 2000 years of long-term char...-106970060

DeutscheBankGeopolitics:2000yearsResearchoflong-termchartsMarch2024JimReidHeadofGlobalEconomics&ThematicResearch(+44)-20-7547-2943jim.reid@db.comAdrianCoxGalinaPozdnyakova+44-20-754-17775+44-20-754-74994adrian.cox@bd.comgalina.pozdnyakova@db.comHenryAllenCassidyAinsworth-Grace+44-20-754-11149+44-207-547-0142henry-f.allen@db.comcassidy.ainsworth-grace@db.comDistributedon:10/03/202421:03:06GMTIMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHA7VTE2BsEeE3Nr0DOIStP6LkAwYoEPD,aPLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.Theworld’stectonicplatesofpowerchangeslowlybutdramaticallyovertimeDeutscheBankResearchJimReid(+44)2075472943jim.reid@db.com1Worldeconomicpowershiftsovertime.Therelativegrowthanddeclineofcountries/empiresoftenleadstoglobaltensions.WhileChinahasbeengrowingrapidlyinrecentdecades,thatgrowthisjustrestoringitclosertoitsplaceformuchofeconomichistory,apositionitfeelsisthehistoricalnorm…GlobalGDPsharesthroughhistory(PPPterms)EuropesawconstanteconomicFormerUSSRandpowershiftsthroughout90%thisperiod.LatinAmericaJapan80%70%Africa60%France,Germany,Italy,UKandSpainUSA50%India40%30%20%China10%0%2505007501000125015001750200012Source:MaddisonDatabase,IMF,DeutscheBankJimReid(+44)2075472943jim.reid@db.comDeutscheBankResearchWorkbased...