Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 13 - 17 May-108191483

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch13May2024AsiaWeekAheadAsiaChinaIndiaPhilippinesWhatyouneedtoknow:13-17MayWeekaheadJulianaLeeChinaeconomicrecoveryislikelytobelargelyresilientinApril,assuggestedbyPMIChiefEconomistreadingsandsomehigh-frequencydata.Industrialproductionisexpectedto+65-6423-5203improveslightlyto4.6%yoyfrom4.5%andfixedassetinvestmenttostayat4.5%.Retailsalesislikelytoimprovemoresignificantlyby0.4pptto3.5%yoy,supportedKaushikDasbytheQingmingHolidayactivities.WethinkPBOCwillholdMLFrateunchangedChiefEconomistat2.5%foranothermonth,butweareaddinga25bpRRRcutforecastforMayto+91-22-71804909injectliquiditytoaccommodatetheincreaseingovernmentbondissuance.YiXiong,Ph.D.WeareforecastingIndia’sAprilCPIinflationat5.0%yoy,slightlyhigherthantheChiefEconomist4.85%inMarchwiththeimpactofthefuelpricecutbehindus.Food&beverages+852-22036139pricesmomentumislikelytobearound+1.1%mom(8.4%yoy)inAprilvs.+0.16%mom(7.7%yoy)inMarch,whilecoreinflation(CPIexfoodandfuel)islikelyDeyunOutorise+0.33%mom(3.0%yoy)inAprilvs.+0.21%mom(3.31%yoy)inMarch.WeResearchAssociateareforecastingApriltradedeficittobearoundUSD16.9bn,higherthantheUSD15.6bnoutturninMarch.Weexpectexportsandimportstorise4.6%yoyand8.2%yoyrespectively.InFY25,weexpectthecurrentaccountdeficittorisetoUSD35bn(0.9%ofGDP),from0.6%ofGDP(USD23bn),whichislikelytoresultinaBOPsurplusof...