Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 8 - 12 Jan-105796766

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch9January2024AsiaWeekAheadAsiaWhatyouneedtoknow:8-12JanWeeksaheadJulianaLeeChinainflationislikelytoreboundslightlyinDecember,withCPIforecasttobe-ChiefEconomist0.4%yoyandPPItobe-2.5%,whichisinlinewiththeimprovementinpricePMIs.+65-6423-5203M2isexpectedtostaylargelyunchangedat10.1%inDecemberfrom10.0%inNovember.Importsareforecasttoturnpositiveto4%from-0.3%,whileexportsareKaushikDaslikelytostayat-1%.ChiefEconomist+91-22-71804909India'sindustrialproductiongrowthisexpectedtomoderateto4.0%yoyinNovember,astheadverseimpactoftheDiwaliholidayeffectkicksin.Already,coreYiXiong,Ph.D.infrastructureproductiongrowthhasmoderatedinNovemberto7.8%,from12.0%ChiefEconomistinOctober.Givensuchidiosyncrasies,weprefercomparingtheaverageofOct-Nov+852-22036139growthbetween2022and2023toascertainthetruemomentumoftheindustrialsector.DeyunOuResearchAssociateTheBankofKoreaislikelytokeepitspolicyrateunchangedon11January,withitsstatementsuggestingthatrateswillremainatthecurrentlevel(3.5%)forsometime.Whilemanufacturingandexportdatasurprisedtotheupside,expanding5.3%yoyand5.1%,respectively,inNovemberandDecember,risingconcernsoverbuilders(projectfinancing)andlower-than-expectedinflation(3.2%vs.3.4%inDecember)havetiltedriskstoratesthrough2024tothedownside.FinancialConditionIndicatorsAdvancedAsianeconomies'financialcond...