Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 22-26 Jan-106038662

DeutscheBankEconomicsDateResearch20January2024AsiaWeekAheadAsiaWhatyouneedtoknow:22-26JanWeekaheadJulianaLeeSouthKoreaislikelytoreportanotherquarteroftrendgrowth(2.2%[0.6%QoQChiefEconomistsa]),ledbyanimprovementinexports.Exportsrose5.8%inQ4(vs.-9.6%inQ3),+65-6423-5203leavingawidertradesurplusofUSD9.6bn(vs.USD6.4bninthesameperiod),implyingthattradecontributedmorestronglytogrowth.ThelattershouldcounterKaushikDasdomesticdemandweakness–investmentinparticular,whichfell10.9%inOct/NovChiefEconomist(vs.-10.5%inQ3).Meanwhile,retailsalesfell2.9%(vs.-3.5%inthesameperiod).+91-22-71804909Intermsofsequentialgrowth,overallproductiondatasuggestssteadygrowth(a4.3%3m/3msaarinNov)fromthepreviousquarter(4.3%inSeptember),ledbyYiXiong,Ph.D.manufacturing.WebelievethattheBankofKorea(BoK)hasturnedneutral,andweChiefEconomistmaintainourexpectationforthebanktocommenceitsratecutsinJuly–although+852-22036139risksaretiltedtothedownside,amidelevatedconcernsoverprojectfinancing(PF)loansand"sluggish"domesticdemand.TheBoKviewstherecoveryinprivateDeyunOuconsumptionas"weakerthananticipated",anditexpectsinflationtoshowaResearchAssociateslowingtrend(albeitatamoderatepace),withpayrollgrowthslowing,ledbyservices–althoughtherecoveryofthesemiindustry(exports)shouldsupportheadlineGDPgrowthimprovementin2024.Distributedon:19/01/202418:37:07GMTInitsNov...